Labor growth at historic lows

U.S. labor-force growth is slowing to rates that federal forecasters tie to an older population, fewer prime-age workers and weaker population gains. (cbo.gov) The Congressional Budget Office said in January 2026 that U.S. population growth is projected to slow from an average of 0.3 percent a year in the next decade to 0.1 percent a year from 2037 to 2056. It also said deaths are projected to exceed births starting in 2030, leaving net immigration as the main source of growth. (cbo.gov) The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in August 2025 that labor-force participation for people 16 and older is projected to slip from 62.6 percent in 2024 to 61.1 percent in 2034. Its table on labor-force age showed the median worker age rising from 41.7 in 2024 to 42.4 in 2034. (bls.gov 1) (bls.gov 2) Those age shifts are concentrated in the groups employers rely on most. The Congressional Budget Office said the number of people ages 25 to 54 is a key driver of employment, while the population 65 and older is projected to grow faster than younger groups through 2036. (cbo.gov) The slower supply of workers shows up in the broader hiring outlook. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projected in August 2025 that total U.S. employment will grow 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2034, far below the 13.0 percent growth recorded from 2014 to 2024. (bls.gov) Housing groups are tying the same labor math to apartments, but with a caveat. The National Multifamily Housing Council said in December 2025 that weaker job growth usually pulls down rent growth, while high new supply also weighed on rents after multifamily completions hit their highest level since the 1970s in 2024. (nmhc.org) That leaves two forces moving at once in multifamily markets: a long-run shortage of labor that can support household formation, and a near-term wave of new apartment deliveries that can cap rents. The National Multifamily Housing Council said metro areas with higher multifamily deliveries recorded lower rent growth in 93 of the 99 quarters it studied through the third quarter of 2025. (nmhc.org) Federal forecasters are also revising the demographic base lower. The Congressional Budget Office said in its 2026 outlook that the population is now projected to grow more slowly over the next 30 years than in both of its 2025 projections, and to be 2.1 percent smaller in 2055 than it projected in January 2025. (cbo.gov) The result is a labor market likely to stay tight in some sectors even when headline hiring cools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said healthcare and social assistance is projected to post the largest job gains through 2034, driven in part by the same aging trend that is slowing labor-force growth overall. (bls.gov)