TSMC lifts market forecast to $1.5T

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its forecast for the global semiconductor market on May 14, saying the industry could exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030 as artificial intelligence demand accelerates. The new target, presented ahead of the company’s Taiwan Technology Symposium in Hsinchu, replaces TSMC’s earlier $1 trillion view. The company said AI and high-performance computing are now expected to account for the largest share of semiconductor demand by the end of the decade. The revised forecast offers a fresh measure of how far chipmakers and their customers now expect the AI buildout to run. ### How big is the change in TSMC’s market view? TSMC said the global semiconductor market will surpass $1.5 trillion by 2030, a 50% increase from its previous $1 trillion forecast. Reuters, citing the company’s presentation materials, reported the revised estimate ahead of the May 14 symposium in Hsinchu. (finance.yahoo.com) The 2030 mix has shifted with that higher total. TSMC said AI and high-performance computing would account for 55% of the market, followed by smartphones at 20% and automotive chips at 10%, according to the presentation details reported by Reuters and U.S. News. ### Why is AI now the center of the forecast? (finance.yahoo.com) Kevin Zhang, TSMC’s senior vice president and deputy co-chief operating officer, said AI is replacing smartphones as the chip industry’s main growth engine, according to Focus Taiwan. The company’s 2026 symposium materials describe the event theme as “Expanding AI with Leadership Silicon,” underscoring how closely TSMC is tying future demand to AI infrastructure and related computing workloads. (money.usnews.com) TSMC’s own product roadmap has also moved in that direction. At its 2026 North America Technology Symposium in April, the company said its new A13 process and related technologies were aimed at next-generation artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and mobile applications. (focustaiwan.tw) ### What does this say about where chip demand is moving? The 55% figure suggests the center of gravity in semiconductors is moving further toward data-center and accelerator demand, while smartphones remain a large but smaller contributor in TSMC’s 2030 view. Reuters reported that AI and high-performance computing were expected to lead growth, with automotive the next-largest named end market after phones. (pr.tsmc.com) TSMC did not present the forecast as a broad consumer-electronics rebound. Instead, the company tied the higher number to sustained AI and high-performance computing demand, according to the symposium materials cited in Reuters coverage. ### Where does TSMC fit in that expansion? (finance.yahoo.com) TSMC is the world’s largest contract chipmaker, giving its market forecasts unusual weight because it manufactures for many of the industry’s biggest designers. The company used the symposium to pair its market outlook with updates on transistor scaling, system integration and packaging technologies aimed at AI customers. (finance.yahoo.com) The company has also said it is expanding capacity faster in 2025 and 2026 and plans to build nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities in 2026, according to Reuters-reported presentation details. That matters because advanced packaging has become a critical part of AI chip production, alongside leading-edge wafer capacity. (finance.yahoo.com) ### What should readers watch next? TSMC’s symposium calendar shows the company continuing the 2026 event series after Hsinchu, with an Europe Technology Symposium scheduled for May 28 in Amsterdam, a China Technology Symposium on June 25 in Shanghai and a Japan Technology Symposium on July 3 in Yokohama. Those events are likely to provide the next official venue for updated customer, process and packaging details from named TSMC executives. (money.usnews.com) (pr.tsmc.com)