Fed Cut Pushed Back

Economists now expect the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until late 2026, the Reuters poll found. (kitco.com) The Reuters poll of 103 economists was conducted April 17–21 and found 56 of 103 expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the end of September. (kitco.com) Seventy-one of 103 forecasters still see at least one cut in 2026, but nearly a third of respondents now forecast no cuts at all this year — roughly double the share in the prior survey. (investinglive.com) Poll respondents said the change reflects a Middle East conflict that has pushed fuel and energy prices sharply higher and driven U.S. consumer confidence to record lows. (kitco.com) The same survey noted forecasters raised projected personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation about 30 basis points, with medians of 3.7% in Q2, 3.4% in Q3 and 3.2% in Q4. (investinglive.com) The poll was conducted largely ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing; economists told Reuters his testimony did not materially change their forecasts, and Deutsche Bank economist Brett Ryan said, “Warsh is just one voice and he would need to convince the committee.” (kitco.com) Industry studies show corporate travel and dining are already adapting: Deloitte’s 2026 travel outlook warns higher-income and business travelers are becoming more deal-sensitive and may take fewer trips, and a YouGov survey found 54% of Americans say they’ve adjusted how they dine out to spend less. (deloitte.com) (yougov.com) The Reuters poll ran April 17–21; markets and businesses will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee’s next scheduled meeting on April 28–29, 2026 for any signs the Fed will change its higher-for-longer outlook. (federalreserve.gov)