AAA forecasts 39.1 million drivers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period, with 39.1 million of them expected to drive between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. The forecast set a new Memorial Day weekend record for total domestic travel and for car travel, according to the group. CNBC reported on May 23 that the driving figure was up 0.1% from last Memorial Day even as higher fuel costs and airfares tested summer travel budgets. AAA’s forecast covers trips of at least 50 miles from home and treats the five-day stretch from Thursday through Monday as the holiday travel window. ### Why is 39.1 million the number to watch? AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to travel by car over the holiday, making driving by far the dominant mode of transportation this weekend. That total accounts for 87% of all Memorial Day travelers in AAA’s forecast, ahead of 3.66 million expected to fly and 2.2 million expected to travel by bus, train or cruise. (newsroom.aaa.com) The 45 million total is only slightly above last year’s 44.8 million, but AAA said it still marks a new Memorial Day weekend record. CNBC separately described the increase in drivers from last year as 0.1%, underscoring how little demand has eased despite higher travel costs. ### How are higher prices fitting into the picture? (newsroom.aaa.com) CNBC reported on May 23 that gasoline was above $4 a gallon and could move closer to $5 this summer, citing AAA. The network also said domestic round-trip airfare in April averaged $623, the highest level in nearly four years, according to Airlines Reporting Corporation data. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said drivers are paying more than they did a year ago, when the national average for regular gasoline was $3.17 on Memorial Day, and said pump prices are now at their highest since the summer of 2022. At the same time, AAA said travelers who booked flights early saw lower ticket prices than last year, with average domestic round-trip airfare for Memorial Day trips at $800, down 6% from a year earlier based on booking data. (cnbc.com) ### If flying is expensive, why are so many still traveling? Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in the group’s release that “travel demand remains strong” and that many people are still prioritizing leisure trips during holiday breaks despite higher fuel prices. CNBC reported that Memorial Day weekend would offer an early test of how much consumers are willing to pay for summer travel as airlines pass along higher fuel costs. (newsroom.aaa.com) The Transportation Security Administration said it expected to screen 18.3 million people between Thursday and the following Wednesday, compared with 18.5 million over a similar period last year, CNBC reported. That suggests the pressure on travel demand is showing up differently across road and air travel, with AAA projecting a record number of drivers while TSA’s checkpoint volume estimate is slightly below last year’s comparable stretch. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What does AAA say about the road trip itself? AAA said road trips remain the most popular option for Memorial Day travelers and noted that rental-car demand was expected to peak on Thursday and Friday. Hertz, identified by AAA as its car-rental partner, said Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver and Boston were the top five markets for rental demand over the weekend. (cnbc.com) AAA also said it handled more than 350,000 roadside assistance calls over last year’s Memorial Day weekend for problems including dead batteries, flat tires and empty gas tanks. Ahead of this year’s rush, the group urged drivers to check battery condition, tire pressure and fluid levels, and to slow down, move over and drive sober. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What happens after Memorial Day weekend? AAA’s Memorial Day forecast runs through Monday, May 25, while TSA’s airport screening projection extends through Wednesday, May 27, according to CNBC. AAA’s newsroom said the organization also issued a separate fuel-price update on May 21, two days before CNBC’s report, as the holiday travel surge began. (cnbc.com) (newsroom.aaa.com)