yilmazkuday posts paper linking geopolitical risk to inflation

Hakan Yilmazkuday’s May 24 X post pointed readers to a paper on geopolitical risk and inflation, but the underlying research says something narrower than a simple one-line claim that “geopolitical risk causes inflation.” The paper he shared — “Geopolitical Risk, Supply Chains, and Global Inflation” — was first issued as a Florida International University working paper in 2024 and later published in *The World Economy*. The study was co-authored by Omid Asadollah, Linda Schwartz Carmy, Md. Rezwanul Hoque and Hakan Yilmazkuday, all affiliated with Florida International University at the time of the working-paper release. It examines monthly data from January 1999 through December 2022 and tests how global geopolitical risk, supply-chain pressures, oil prices and global monetary policy relate to four inflation measures: headline, core, food and energy. (economics.fiu.edu) ### What exactly did the paper study? The FIU working paper says it used a structural vector autoregression model to study global inflation over the 1999M1-2022M12 period. The authors controlled for global oil prices and global monetary policy while comparing the effects of geopolitical-risk shocks and global supply-chain pressures. Four inflation measures were included in the analysis: headline, core, food and energy inflation. (economics.fiu.edu) That matters because the paper does not present one single inflation result; it separates broad consumer-price pressures from categories more directly tied to food and energy markets. ### Did the authors say geopolitical risk was the main inflation driver? The paper’s headline quantitative result points first to supply chains, not geopolitical risk. (economics.fiu.edu) The authors wrote that supply-chain disruptions explained the largest share of long-run volatility in headline inflation, at 32%, core inflation at 30%, and food inflation at 22%. For energy inflation, oil-price shocks explained the most, at 55%. By contrast, the same abstract says positive shocks to geopolitical risk raised headline inflation only up to one year, with effects that became statistically insignificant in the long run. (economics.fiu.edu) That is a more limited claim than saying geopolitical risk was the dominant source of inflation across the full sample. ### So where does geopolitical risk fit in? The paper places geopolitical risk among several global forces that can feed into inflation. (economics.fiu.edu) The authors found that positive supply-chain pressure and oil-price shocks had positive and statistically significant effects on headline inflation even after five years, while positive policy-rate shocks had negative and statistically significant effects in the long run. That setup means geopolitical risk is treated as one channel in a broader system. (economics.fiu.edu) The study’s framing is that conflict-related uncertainty can matter for inflation, but the estimated persistence in this paper was shorter than the persistence tied to supply-chain and oil-price shocks. ### Was this a new paper posted on May 24? The working-paper file is labeled FIU Working Paper 2406 and carries a March 28, 2024 date in the document, while FIU said on June 9, 2024 that the article had been published in *The World Economy*. (economics.fiu.edu) RePEc and FIU listings identify the journal version as appearing in volume 47, issue 8, in August 2024. So the May 24, 2026 X post appears to have been a recirculation of existing research rather than the first release of a new paper. (economics.fiu.edu) Readers looking for the source material can find the working-paper version on FIU’s economics site and the published citation through FIU and RePEc records.