Asian PMIs and energy strain
March purchasing‑managers' data show early signs of supply‑side strain across Asian manufacturing—lower output, higher raw‑material costs and squeezed margins—linked to the Middle East conflict. (fibre2fashion.com) Separately, analysts warn Japan could face a summer power crunch if LNG disruptions persist, prompting discussion of reactor restarts as energy security becomes a near‑term industrial constraint. (reuters.com) (politico.com)
Asian factories are starting to show the cost of the Middle East war in their monthly production surveys, and Japan is warning energy shortages could follow. (nomuraconnects.com) Nomura said Asia’s average manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.0 in March from 53.3 in February, with lower output, weaker new orders and longer supplier delivery times in the first full survey after the conflict began. (nomuraconnects.com) The bank said the “stagflationary mix” was sharpest in Indonesia and India, where factories reported higher raw-material costs and tighter margins even as activity slowed. Korea was a partial exception, with respondents still citing strong artificial-intelligence demand. (fibre2fashion.com) A purchasing managers’ index is a monthly business survey in which readings above 50 point to expansion and readings below 50 point to contraction. March’s drop did not signal a regional manufacturing slump on its own, but it did show supply shocks hitting costs and output at the same time. (nomuraconnects.com) Japan’s energy system is exposed to the same shock through fuel imports. An analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, said on April 13 that the country could face a summer power crunch if liquefied natural gas disruptions from the Middle East persist as air-conditioning demand rises. (channelnewsasia.com) That analyst, Takafumi Yanagisawa, said Japan imports about 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas a year through the Strait of Hormuz, equal to about 6 percent of total liquefied natural gas imports. He said supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates account for about 3.5 percent of Japan’s electricity output. (ameblo.jp) Utilities have been trying to cover the gap with spot purchases and by using flexibility in existing contracts with suppliers in Australia and the United States, according to Yanagisawa. He also said delays to new Qatari and Emirati projects expected from 2028 are possible if the conflict drags on. (ameblo.jp) That risk is feeding Japan’s return to nuclear power 15 years after the Fukushima disaster. Politico reported on April 14 that Japan planned to bring its 16th reactor online this week, while the World Nuclear Association says 15 reactors had already cleared restart rules and 14 had returned to service since 2015. (politico.com) (world-nuclear.org) Japan’s cabinet approved a seventh basic energy plan in February 2025 that shifted official policy from reducing nuclear dependence to maximizing its use, according to Nippon.com. The Council on Foreign Relations said in March 2026 that the change reflects Japan’s push for more secure domestic power after years of high fuel-import dependence. (nippon.com) (cfr.org) The immediate test comes in the next few months: whether March’s factory cost squeeze stays contained and whether Japan can secure enough fuel before summer demand peaks. (channelnewsasia.com) (nomuraconnects.com)
