Wildfire Risk & Drills

Wildfire agencies are entering 2026 with a broader U.S. fire threat and more field drills before peak summer heat arrives. (accuweather.com) AccuWeather said on April 22 that 5.5 million to 8 million acres could burn across the United States this year, compared with 5,131,474 acres burned in 2025 and a historical average near 7 million acres. Its forecast also projected 65,000 to 80,000 fires nationwide in 2026. (accuweather.com) The National Interagency Fire Center said in its April 1 outlook that fire activity increased in March and that above-normal significant fire potential was already in place across parts of the central and southern High Plains, most of New Mexico, and southeast Arizona. The same outlook showed risk expanding into parts of the Southwest, Northwest, and Rockies as spring turns to summer. (nifc.gov) That forecast rests on a simple problem: dry vegetation becomes fuel, and heat, wind, and low humidity make it easier for small fires to spread fast. NOAA said last month that drought was expected to persist across much of the West and develop in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, central Rockies, and Southwest from April through June. (noaa.gov) NOAA said moderate to exceptional drought covered 55% of the continental United States as of mid-March, after a winter of warmer and drier than normal conditions in parts of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Its April-through-June outlook also favored above-normal temperatures across most of the western U.S. and below-average precipitation from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies. (noaa.gov) In Monterey County, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection crews and partner agencies used that national backdrop to rehearse local response. KSBW reported that the annual Gabilan preparedness drill included 17 exercises focused on wildfire operations before the coming season. (ksbw.com) Those Monterey County drills included water-supply checks and interagency training, the kind of work departments use to test whether engines, crews, and communications can move together when a fire jumps from one jurisdiction to another. CAL FIRE said its mission includes protecting people, property, and natural resources across California. (ksbw.com, fire.ca.gov) AccuWeather said California could see 500,000 to 750,000 acres burn in 2026, below the state’s historical average of about 1 million acres, while the interior Northwest and the Rockies face the highest risk for larger fires. The firm said the season could bring fewer ignitions than 2025 but more fires that grow large before containment. (accuweather.com) The next federal update arrives May 1, when the National Interagency Fire Center issues a new four-month outlook. Until then, agencies are treating spring as setup time for a season that forecasters expect to run hotter, drier, and longer in several regions. (nifc.gov)