Thailand crop outlook improves
- Recent reports say Thai rice output is likely to rise thanks to favourable weather conditions. - The Star specifically notes an improved crop outlook and higher world quotations for Thai rice. - Better domestic output gives Thai exporters more volume certainty even as global import demand shows pockets of weakness (thestar.com.my).
Thailand’s rice crop outlook has improved in early 2026, with favorable weather expected to lift output and give exporters more grain to sell. (thestar.com.my) The United States Department of Agriculture’s Bangkok office said on April 4 that Thailand’s rice production in marketing year 2025/26 is forecast to rise to 20.7 million metric tons from 20.5 million a year earlier. It attributed the increase to expanded off-season planting and stable yields in the main crop. (apps.fas.usda.gov) The Food and Agriculture Organization said on January 23 that Thailand’s 2025/26 aggregate paddy production was forecast at 33.5 million tonnes, with good vegetation conditions in most growing areas and adequate water for irrigated second-crop planting. The agency also said the main crop accounts for about 80% of annual output. (fao.org) Higher output matters because rice remains one of Thailand’s biggest farm exports and a major rural income source. The Star reported that about 61% of Thai farming households are involved in rice, representing roughly 20 million people. (thestar.com.my) The export side is steadier on supply than on demand. USDA’s Bangkok office kept its 2025/26 export forecast at 7.6 million metric tons, while the Food and Agriculture Organization estimated Thailand’s 2025 rice exports fell to 7.7 million tonnes from 9.9 million tonnes in 2024 because of stronger competition. (apps.fas.usda.gov, fao.org) Prices have also turned up in April. Thai Rice Exporters Association quotations on April 22 showed Thai 5% white rice at $410 a metric ton, up from $381 on April 1, while 25% white rice rose to $394 from $366 over the same period. (thairiceexporters.or.th) That price rebound follows a softer start to the year. USDA’s Thailand page said early-2026 export prices had weakened as a stronger baht, competition from Vietnam and India, and slower seasonal demand led buyers to delay purchases. (fas.usda.gov) Thai banks and industry researchers still expect a tougher market beyond the current crop improvement. Krungsri Research said on January 21 that exports in 2026-2028 are projected to contract as global supply rises and import demand weakens, even with reservoir levels and weather supporting cultivation in 2026. (krungsri.com) For now, the immediate shift is on the farm: better weather, better water and a slightly larger crop. That gives Thai exporters more volume certainty, even as they sell into a market still defined by heavy competition and uneven buying. (apps.fas.usda.gov, krungsri.com)
