Strait of Hormuz ship traffic down ~95% as passage remains nearly closed

Oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not “back.” That’s the main thing to understand. The U.S. has started trying to guide commercial vessels through the waterway, and one Maersk-linked ship made the passage under military protection, but the broader traffic picture still looks badly broken. The gap is between a symbolic reopening and a functioning trade lane — and on May 5, that gap was still wide. (apnews.com) ### Why does this chokepoint matter so much? The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow exit for Gulf energy exports. A huge share of the world’s seaborne crude oil moves through it, along with liquefied natural gas and fertilizer cargoes. When that lane seizes up, the shock does not stay in shipping — it moves into fuel, freight, petrochemicals, and eventually food and consumer prices. (unctad.org) ### So what actually changed this week? What changed is that Washington moved from talking about reopening the route to actively trying to do it. The U.S. began an effort to guide stranded ships out of the Gulf, and the operation quickly became a test of the shaky ceasefire with Iran. That is new. But the catch is that a military escort plan is not the same thing as shipowners deciding the route is commercially safe again. (apnews.com) ### Is the strait still basically closed? In practical terms, yes — or at least still heavily restricted. UNCTAD said in March that ship transits had come to a near halt, showing a 97% drop from late-February norms to only a handful of daily passages. More recent shipping coverage says traffic remains largely at a standstill even after the latest U.S. push, which tells you the market still does not trust the corridor. (unctad.org) ### Didn’t one ship get through? Yes. A Maersk vessel transited the strait under U.S. military protection without incident. That matters because it proves passage is possible. But one escorted transit is like getting a single plane off a runway during a storm — useful, but nowhere near normal operations. Shipping companies still have to think about crew safety, insurance, scheduling, and whether the next voyage will be protected too. (navytimes.com) ### Why aren’t shipowners rushing back? Because the real gatekeeper is not just naval power — it is insurability and predictability. Shipping companies have been waiting for clear rules on escorts, liability, and war-risk cover. Lloyd’s List described the U.S. plan as poorly coordinated with industry, and bro(navytimes.com)sk, they do not sail. (lloydslist.com) ### What does this mean for oil? It means the market is still dealing with a supply shock, even if not every lost barrel disappears forever. EIA said in April that limited Hormuz flows were already forcing storage to fill and had contributed to 7.5 million barrels a day of crude production being shut in across key Gulf exporters in March. Some countries can reroute part of the(lloydslist.com)(eia.gov) ### Does this become a broader trade crisis? Not automatically. Lloyd’s List says the impact on container shipping has stayed more localized than the Red Sea crisis. But localized does not mean small. Hormuz is unusually concentrated around energy and industrial inputs, so even a narrower disruption can hit hard where it counts — fuel, fertilizer, shipping costs, and inflation-sensitive goods. (lloydslist.com) ### Bottom line? The story on May 5 is not that Hormuz reopened. It is that the U.S. has started testing a reopening, while commercial traffic still looks far below normal. Until insurers, shipowners, and crews believe the route is reliably safe — not just passable once — the strait remains constrained in the way that matters most: actual trade. (apnews.com)ed19451a25))