French strategist warns a U.S.–Iran deal reopening the Strait could push oil to $80

Nicolas Chéron, a French market strategist who posts as @NCheron_bourse on X, said on May 24 that a possible U.S.-Iran deal could bring traffic in the Strait of Hormuz back within 30 days and send oil “back to $80.” His post linked that view to a brief inflation rebound and argued that equity markets could keep focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics even if energy prices eased. The remark came as U.S. President Donald Trump said a possible agreement with Iran was “largely negotiated,” and as reports from Iranian and regional media described a draft memorandum that could include sanctions relief and steps to restore shipping. ### What exactly did the strategist say? Nicolas Chéron said in his X post that a U.S.-Iran deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and push oil back toward $80 a barrel, according to the social-media briefing provided for this story. He also said that any inflation effect would be brief and that markets were still being driven by AI and robotics shares, the briefing said. The post was published within the last 48 hours, according to the same briefing. (aljazeera.com) Chéron’s comment was a market view, not an official statement from either government. ### What is the reported U.S.-Iran framework behind that call? Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 24 that an agreement between the United States, Iran and other countries had been “largely negotiated,” according to reporting from Al Jazeera citing Reuters and AP. Trump said the proposal would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to most shipping since the war began on February 28, that report said. Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian outlet, reported on May 24 that a possible preliminary understanding would include a waiver on Iranian oil sanctions during negotiations. Tasnim also reported that the draft envisions a 30-day period for implementing measures related to the naval blockade and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a 60-day period for talks on the nuclear issue. (aljazeera.com) ### Does “reopen in 30 days” mean a full return to normal shipping? Tasnim reported that the draft would not return the strait to its pre-war status in full within 30 days. The outlet said the provision under discussion was instead a restoration of the number of transiting vessels to pre-war levels within 30 days, while Iran would continue to assert sovereignty over the waterway through measures to be announced later. (tasnimnews.ir) That distinction matters because Chéron’s market comment referred to a reopening timeline, while the reported Iranian description refers more narrowly to vessel traffic recovering over a month. Neither Washington nor Tehran had publicly released a final signed text as of May 24, based on the reporting reviewed here. (tasnimnews.ir) ### Why does the Strait matter so much to oil prices? The International Energy Agency said in a February 2026 factsheet that about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. The IEA said that equals around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and that options to bypass the route are limited. (aljazeera.com) The IEA also said a disruption in the strait would have “huge consequences” for world oil markets and would affect liquefied natural gas flows from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Most of the oil leaving the strait heads to Asia, with China, India and Japan among the main importers, the agency said. ### How does the $80 call compare with current prices? (iea.org) Brent crude futures settled at $103.54 a barrel on May 22, according to market data cited by multiple financial outlets and ICE pricing for the July 2026 contract showed 104.25 on May 22. Chéron’s “back to $80” comment therefore pointed to a drop of more than $20 a barrel from current front-month Brent levels. (iea.org) The next step is the release of any formal U.S.-Iran memorandum or joint statements from Washington, Tehran and the regional governments Trump said were involved. Tasnim reported that the draft under discussion includes a 30-day Hormuz implementation period and a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. (aljazeera.com) (economictimes.indiatimes.com)