Rivalry Is Reshaping Trade

Trade is still growing, but the map is changing as governments route more commerce through allies and treat imports as a security risk. (unctad.org) The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said in April 2026 that global trade growth continued, but “fragility rises” as policy shocks and geopolitical tensions reshape flows. The World Trade Organization said trade is set to slow in 2026 after stronger-than-expected growth in 2025. (unctad.org) (wto.org) In the United States, that shift moved from rhetoric to tariff schedules in April 2025, when the White House issued executive orders raising duties on Chinese imports and tying the move to national security and trade deficits. A November 2025 White House order then said some reciprocal tariff rates were being modified after a U.S.-China economic and trade arrangement. (whitehouse.gov 1) (whitehouse.gov 2) Europe used different language but pushed in the same direction. The European Commission said on December 3, 2025 that its economic security strategy would reinforce resilience against “growing external economic threats” while keeping the bloc open to trade and investment. (ec.europa.eu) That has changed how companies and officials talk about supply chains. Instead of chasing the lowest-cost supplier anywhere in the world, governments now back “de-risking,” a term the European Commission used in a 2025 factsheet for working with partners while minimizing costs to industry. (ec.europa.eu) The rerouting shows up in country data. The Office of the United States Trade Representative said the U.S. goods trade deficit with Vietnam reached $178.2 billion in 2025, up 44.3% from 2024, while U.S. goods imports from Vietnam rose 42.0% to $193.8 billion. (ustr.gov) Mexico has also become central to the North American version of this shift. The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly trade tables list Mexico among the top U.S. trading partners, reflecting how firms have moved more production closer to the U.S. market even when final demand remains global. (census.gov 1) (census.gov 2) Economists have tied the new trade politics to slower growth and higher uncertainty, not a collapse in commerce. The International Monetary Fund said in October 2025 that tariffs, front-loading and policy resets had left the global economy “in flux,” while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said new trade barriers had pushed policy uncertainty markedly higher. (imf.org) (oecd.org) Officials who support the shift say resilience has a price and that pandemic shortages, energy shocks and export controls exposed the risk of depending on one rival power for chips, batteries, medicines or shipping. Trade agencies in Washington and Brussels now group those questions under “supply chain resilience” and “economic security,” not just efficiency. (ustr.gov) (trade.ec.europa.eu) Critics say the same policies can raise costs, duplicate factories and invite retaliation. The World Trade Organization’s outlook and the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts both point to a world where trade still expands, but under more political constraints and with more friction at the border. (wto.org) (imf.org) The result is not the end of globalization so much as a harder-edged version of it. Goods still move, but more of them now move along lines drawn by tariffs, alliances and security reviews rather than price alone. (unctad.org) (ec.europa.eu)