Markets on edge

Wall Street started Monday with geopolitics back in charge as investors weighed a fragile United States-Iran ceasefire, oil-route risk and a packed week of data and bank earnings. (cnbc.com) The immediate market backdrop shifted fast last week. CNBC reported that a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran lifted stocks and knocked oil lower, but demand for gold and United States Treasurys showed traders were still buying protection. (cnbc.com) That caution reflects how much energy trade still runs through one narrow waterway. The United States Energy Information Administration said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and one-quarter of all seaborne oil trade. (eia.gov) The same chokepoint matters for gas as well as crude. The International Energy Agency said about 20 million barrels a day of oil and roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade move through Hormuz, with only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of pipeline capacity available to bypass it. (iea.org) United States inflation data already showed the spillover from the conflict. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on April 10 that the consumer price index rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% from a year earlier, while CNBC said energy prices jumped 10.9% for the month after the war began on February 28. (cnbc.com) This week’s calendar gives traders several more tests after that inflation surprise. Trading Economics listed producer prices for Tuesday, April 14, and retail sales, industrial production, housing data, crude inventory figures and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for Wednesday, April 15, with jobless claims due Thursday, April 16. (tradingeconomics.com) Bank earnings are arriving at the same time, which means investors will get a read on credit, trading and corporate demand just as the macro picture darkens. MarketScreener calendars show Goldman Sachs reporting Monday, April 13; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, April 14; and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, April 15. (marketscreener.com 1) (marketscreener.com 2) (marketscreener.com 3) Energy forecasters are not assuming a quick return to normal. In its April 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration said Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March and could peak at $115 in the second quarter of 2026 if disruptions tied to Hormuz persist. (eia.gov) That leaves markets trading two clocks at once this week: the diplomatic clock on whether the ceasefire holds, and the economic clock on whether higher energy costs are already feeding into growth, inflation and company results. (time.com)