Morikawa raises warning flags
Commentators called Collin Morikawa a concrete red flag after reported ball speed fell to about 172 mph — below his usual high‑170s — and bookmakers listing him at 66‑to‑1 drew almost no action. (youtube.com) That mix — lower ball speed plus market indifference — is the sort of signal that suggests you should be cautious about rostering him early. (cbssports.com)
Collin Morikawa is showing up on a lot of “be careful” lists this week, and the warning is coming from two different places at once. One is his reported ball speed, which was recently cited at about 172 miles per hour, and the other is the betting market, where at least one expert preview pegged him as a 66-to-1 longshot that drew little enthusiasm. (sportskeeda.com) (cbssports.com) That combination matters because Morikawa’s profile has usually been built on precision first and enough speed second. When the speed number slips below his usual high-170s range, the margin for error gets smaller on a course like Augusta National, where longer approach shots can turn a strength into a tougher assignment. (sportskeeda.com) (pgatour.com) Ball speed is the simplest power number in modern golf. It measures how fast the ball leaves the clubface, and a few miles per hour can mean the difference between hitting a shorter iron into a green or having to flight in a longer club that lands flatter and stops less quickly. Morikawa himself hinted in January that he wanted more. After TaylorMade’s January 8 product launch, he posted a 172 miles-per-hour ball speed reading with the Qi4D Low Spin driver and wrote, “Maybe we’ll see 180 this year??,” which tells you he did not view 172 as his ideal ceiling. (sportskeeda.com) The caution around him is not coming from a collapse in results. Morikawa won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February 2026, finished seventh at The Genesis Invitational, and added a fifth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. (pgatour.com) (cbssports.com) His iron play also remains elite by any standard. The PGA Tour’s own betting profile lists Morikawa first on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green at 1.066 in 2026, third in Greens in Regulation Percentage at 72.22 percent, and 11th in Strokes Gained: Total. (pgatour.com) That is why this is a warning flag instead of a full stop. If Morikawa were spraying irons or missing cuts every week, the case against him would be obvious, but his current form is good enough to keep people interested even while the power question hangs over him. (pgatour.com) The market signal is the second half of the story. CBS Sports published a Masters betting preview on April 4, 2026, built around expert picks from Sia Nejad, and that article framed the board in a way that left Morikawa outside the circle of serious attention compared with names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele. (cbssports.com) Another CBS Sports Masters preview published on April 8, 2026, again centered the discussion on the favorites and on golfers to fade or target, with Morikawa not surfacing as a featured conviction play there either. That kind of silence is its own piece of information when the player in question is a two-time major champion with a strong Augusta record. (cbssports.com) His Augusta history is solid enough to make the hesitation notable. Morikawa finished tied for third at the 2024 Masters, tied for 14th in 2025, tied for 10th in 2023, and fifth in 2022, so this is not a player being dismissed because he cannot handle the course. (pgatour.com) What bettors and fantasy players seem to be wrestling with is a narrow question: how much room does Morikawa have if the driver is merely average by elite-major standards? Augusta can reward precision, but it also asks players to attack long par fives and control distance into elevated greens, and extra ball speed makes both jobs easier. There is also a pricing problem. If a golfer is carrying a softer power profile than usual, the number has to compensate for that risk, and the reported 66-to-1 range suggests the market was not convinced he offered enough upside to justify early action. (cbssports.com) None of this means Morikawa cannot contend. It means the case for him now depends on almost everything else staying sharp at once: the iron play staying No. 1 level, the putting not slipping from its current negative Strokes Gained mark of minus-0.116, and the reduced speed not costing him too many awkward second shots over four rounds. (pgatour.com) That is why commentators are calling him a red flag instead of a sleeper. Morikawa still has the résumé, the course history, and the recent top finishes, but a 172 miles-per-hour reading plus a quiet betting market is exactly the kind of profile that makes cautious players wait rather than rush to roster him. (sportskeeda.com) (pgatour.com) (cbssports.com)
