Cocoa and F&B swings persist
Cocoa prices remain volatile—recent rebounds are giving way to bearish moves as West African output improves and some farm prices in Cameroon plunged by as much as 75% from recent peaks. Other F&B inputs are also jittery: raisin supply is tightening amid Iran tensions and analysts warn coffee could swing sharply after its tariff‑driven rally. (confectionerynews.com) (businessincameroon.com) (bakeryandsnacks.com) (reuters.com)
ICE/London cocoa contracts were trading around $3,290 per tonne on March 18, 2026, roughly 59% below the same date last year. (tradingeconomics.com) ICE‑monitored cocoa stocks at U.S. ports hit about 2,273,550 bags in mid‑March 2026, a seven‑month high that analysts link to improved West African harvests and rising global supplies. (financialcontent.com) Market trackers and traders are estimating a 2025/26 cocoa surplus in the range of ~186,000 tonnes, with some traders projecting a 300,000–400,000‑tonne overhang that has pressured prices. (africabusinessinsight.com) Cameroon official figures show a CAF price of 1,817 XAF/kg and an FOB rate of 1,760 XAF/kg as of March 16, 2026, while Douala farm‑gate purchases were reported at XAF1,100–1,200/kg — declines of up to about 75% from recent peaks. (businessincameroon.com) Iran imposed a blanket ban on agricultural exports effective March 3, 2026, removing a material source of sultanas/raisins and contributing to tighter supply signals for the raisin market in Europe and the Middle East. (freshplaza.com) Trade analysts report Turkey’s weekly raisin exports slid to about 2,800 tonnes as of early March 2026 — roughly 450 tonnes below the prior year’s comparable week — amplifying reliance on a smaller pool of origins. (commodity-board.com) Coffee’s 2025–26 price spike was in part driven by tariff measures and origin weather shocks, with some exchanges seeing rallies of 20–30% during 2025, and analysts are warning that a tariff‑driven upswing could unwind sharply as supply and demand re‑balance. (investing.com)
