IC substrate demand is changing
AI accelerators are driving demand for high‑end ABF substrates, chiplet designs need larger FC‑BGA panels, and glass‑core substrates are entering pilot production — packaging needs are evolving fast. That shift will change order profiles and the types of passive and interposer components distributors are asked to stock. (x.com)
Global ABF-substrate demand is already measurable: one industry forecast put the ABF market at about $5.789 billion in 2024 with a projected rise to $10.93 billion by 2031 (CAGR ~9.6%). (qyresearch.com) Toppan said it is expanding FC‑BGA lines to roughly double Niigata plant capacity versus early‑2022 levels to serve more complex, larger substrates for AI chips. (evertiq.com) Market research estimates place the global FC‑BGA market at about $5.29 billion in 2024 with forecasts above $10 billion by the early 2030s, underscoring sustained panel-scale demand. (intelmarketresearch.com) Major glass‑substrate pilots are public: TrendForce reported Samsung Electro‑Mechanics aiming to install pilot equipment in 2024 with commercial scale targeted around 2026, and AMD flagged glass substrate plans for 2025–2026. (trendforce.com) Yole Group’s 2025 glass‑materials analysis identifies glass core substrates and glass interposers as active pilot and early production vectors for AI and HPC packages. (yolegroup.com) Advanced‑packaging spending is scaling fast: Yole pegged the advanced‑packaging market at roughly $46 billion in 2024 and projected it to exceed $79.4 billion by 2030 as AI and HPC drive back‑end investment. (yolegroup.com) Yole also estimates back‑end equipment revenue rising from about $6.9 billion in 2025 toward $9.2 billion by 2030, reflecting new substrate and panel‑level tool requirements. (yolegroup.com) Passive‑component demand profiles are shifting toward high‑capacitance, high‑reliability parts: one market note said an AI server can require roughly 1,800–2,500 MLCCs versus ~800–1,200 for traditional servers, and vendors report growing uptake of mid‑to‑large CV MLCCs to replace aluminum polymer capacitors in AI power rails. (pmarketresearch.com) TrendForce projects AI infrastructure as the primary MLCC growth driver in 2025, concentrating demand on high‑voltage, low‑ESR, and high‑temperature dielectric types. (trendforce.com) Distributors and stocking partners should expect new SKU mixes: analysts flag emerging supply risk in passives heading into 2026 as AI and HPC demand tightens specific MLCC grades and form factors. (fusionww.com) At the same time, interposer demand (silicon and rising glass interposers) is forecast to grow in the mid‑teens CAGR, creating orders for glass/interposer panels, adapter/interposer services, and specialized substrates that distributors and fabrication partners increasingly source or broker. (semiconductorinsight.com)
