Weak demand and risks

Tariffs are hitting every U.S. state just as consumers turn gloomier and the International Monetary Fund cuts its growth forecast. (tradepartnership.com) (sca.isr.umich.edu) (imf.org) Trade Partnership Worldwide’s State Tariff Tracker says it estimates tariffs paid by state on all imports from all countries, with monthly data through 2025 and industry-level detail on products, countries, and duties. Fortune reported on April 14 that the database shows an economic hit across all 50 states, with costs spreading through local supply chains. (tradepartnership.com) (fortune.com) The Budget Lab at Yale said on April 2 that the U.S. average effective tariff rate stood at 11.0%, the highest since 1943 excluding 2025. It estimated the current tariff mix would lift the overall price level by 0.5% to 0.6% if temporary Section 122 tariffs expire after 150 days, costing the average household about $650 to $780. (budgetlab.yale.edu) The same Yale report said the long-run U.S. economy would be 0.1% smaller, or about $27 billion a year in 2025 dollars, under that baseline. It also projected manufacturing output would rise 0.7%, while construction would fall 2.0% and mining would decline 0.8%. (budgetlab.yale.edu) Yale’s separate April 1 tracker said the 2025 tariffs had raised an estimated $214.7 billion in inflation-adjusted customs revenue above the 2022-2024 average as of February 2026. The same update said imported core goods and durable-goods prices had each risen 1.5% during 2025 through January, with tariff pass-through to consumer prices ranging from roughly 46% to 115% depending on the method. (budgetlab.yale.edu) Households are showing the strain. The University of Michigan’s preliminary April reading put consumer sentiment at 47.6, down from 53.3 in March and 52.2 a year earlier, while its expectations index fell to 46.1 and current conditions dropped to 50.1. (sca.isr.umich.edu) Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said sentiment fell about 11% in April and that declines hit every age, income, and political group. The survey said year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% in March, and 98% of interviews were completed before the April 7 cease-fire announcement. (sca.isr.umich.edu) The International Monetary Fund said on April 14 that global growth is now projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, after the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a moderate 19% rise in energy commodity prices in its reference forecast. Its January pre-conflict baseline would have implied 3.4% growth in 2026 instead. (imf.org 1) (imf.org 2) The fund also said global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027. Reuters reported the fund warned a longer disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push the world closer to recession. (imf.org) (reuters.com) The administration has argued tariffs can raise revenue, shift production back to the United States, and protect strategic industries. The Budget Lab’s estimates partly reflect that trade-off: higher manufacturing output alongside weaker activity in construction and mining, plus higher prices for households. (budgetlab.yale.edu) The next check on U.S. demand comes on April 24, when the University of Michigan releases its final April survey. Until then, the picture is a tariff bill spread across the states, consumers expecting faster inflation, and a world economy growing more slowly than the International Monetary Fund expected in January. (sca.isr.umich.edu) (imf.org)