Prolonged Fire Danger Across Tampa Bay

Fire danger is stretching into the weekend across the Tampa Bay area as dry air, drought and warm temperatures keep vegetation easy to ignite. (weather.gov) The National Weather Service office in Ruskin said Friday that “critical” afternoon humidity is expected for the next few days, with rain-free conditions holding through the weekend. Its fire-weather forecast said humidity could fall below 35% in parts of west-central Florida, though winds were expected to stay under the 15 mph threshold that usually triggers a Red Flag Warning. (weather.gov 1) (weather.gov 2) For peninsular Florida, the National Weather Service uses a three-part test for the most serious fire-weather alerts: relative humidity below 35%, sustained winds above 15 mph, and an Energy Release Component of 27 or higher, a measure of how much heat dry vegetation can produce. Those thresholds were cited this week in a Florida Public Radio Emergency Network report on the broader fire danger across the state. (wgcu.org) The Tampa Bay forecast office is also carrying “moderate to extreme drought” across west-central and southwest Florida. The U.S. Drought Monitor’s April 14 update said dryness worsened across the Southeast, including Florida. (weather.gov) (droughtmonitor.unl.edu 1) (droughtmonitor.unl.edu 2) State fire officials measure a different risk alongside the weather: the chance that a fire will start and need suppression. The Florida Forest Service says its Fire Danger Index estimates ignition potential, not how fast a fire will spread or how hard it will be to control. (fdacs.gov) Local restrictions are already in place in parts of the region. Florida Forest Service records showed county-enacted burn bans in Hillsborough and Pasco as of April 1, while Pinellas bars open burning of yard debris year-round under county ordinance. (fdacs.gov) The near-term forecast offers only limited relief. The National Weather Service said the next chance for rain in the Tampa Bay area would come Monday with a weak cold front, after several days of highs in the mid-80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. (weather.gov) (weather.gov) Until that front arrives, fire agencies are pointing residents to the same bottom line: avoid outdoor burning and anything else that can throw a spark into dry grass or brush. (weather.gov) (fdacs.gov)