Singapore market resilience

Singapore stocks have held up better than most of Asia since the United States-Iran war began, with the Straits Times Index sitting near record levels in mid-April. (bloomberg.com) Bloomberg reported on April 12 that the Straits Times Index was broadly unchanged from the start of the war in late February, while the MSCI Asia gauge was down 4.9 per cent. The Securities Investors Association of Singapore said the index still ended last week at 4,989.41 after briefly crossing 5,000 intraday. (bloomberg.com) (sias.org.sg) Part of that resilience comes from what is inside the benchmark. Bloomberg said high-dividend lenders including DBS Group Holdings and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation make up more than 40 per cent of the index, giving investors a defensive mix when oil shocks hit riskier markets. (bloomberg.com) Singapore also entered the crisis with firmer domestic data than many investors expected. The Ministry of Trade and Industry said on February 10 that the economy grew 5.0 per cent in 2025 and upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0 to 4.0 per cent after fourth-quarter growth accelerated to 6.9 per cent. (mti.gov.sg) Inflation has not disappeared, but it has stayed low enough for investors to treat Singapore differently from more oil-sensitive markets. Channel NewsAsia reported on January 29 that the Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its 2026 forecasts for both core and headline inflation to 1 to 2 per cent and warned that geopolitical supply shocks could lift imported costs. (channelnewsasia.com) The wider regional backdrop was rougher. Mint reported on March 3 that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 3 per cent after the conflict escalated, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 7.2 per cent, and Brent crude rose above $79 a barrel as Iran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (livemint.com) Singapore’s calm has been conditional, not absolute. The Securities Investors Association of Singapore said a two-week ceasefire announced last week helped the Straits Times Index rebound 0.8 per cent, but reports of continued fighting and the continued closure of Hormuz quickly cut that relief short. (sias.org.sg) Trading volumes show investors have not been ignoring the risk. The Business Times reported on April 9 that securities turnover on Singapore Exchange jumped 78 per cent from a year earlier to S$52.8 billion in March, with daily average value at S$2.4 billion, the highest since October 2007. (businesstimes.com.sg) Policy is shifting too. Reuters reported on April 13 that the Monetary Authority of Singapore slightly increased the rate of appreciation of its Singapore dollar policy band, a move that can support the currency and help limit imported inflation from energy prices. (usnews.com) That leaves Singapore looking sturdier than many peers, but not insulated from the same war-driven forces. If oil stays elevated, shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted, or global trade slows, the market’s relative outperformance will be tested by the same external shocks it has so far absorbed better than most. (channelnewsasia.com) (sias.org.sg)