Iran Retaliates After Supreme Leader Killed

The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has triggered a constitutional process for succession, a procedure only enacted once before in the Islamic Republic's history, following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. An 88-member body of senior clerics, known as the Assembly of Experts, is tasked with selecting the new Supreme Leader. In the interim, a temporary council, consisting of the current president, the head of the judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council, will manage state affairs. The Assembly of Experts, currently chaired by veteran cleric Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, must convene to choose a successor as soon as possible. All candidates for the position must first be vetted and approved by the Guardian Council, a powerful body that has historically disqualified candidates deemed insufficiently loyal. This vetting process significantly narrows the field of potential successors. Before his death, Khamenei had not publicly named a successor, and the Assembly of Experts had been examining potential candidates in secret. Potential contenders who have been discussed include Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and other senior political and religious figures like Alireza Arafi and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani. The IRGC is expected to wield significant influence over the selection process. The escalation follows a period of heightened tensions and a "shadow war" between Iran and Israel, which included direct missile and drone attacks in 2024 and a brief, more intense conflict in June 2025. These earlier confrontations targeted military and nuclear facilities, with both sides claiming successful strikes and interceptions. Iran's missile arsenal is one of the largest in the Middle East, with the capability to strike targets across the region. President Trump's assertion of an "easy" diplomatic path forward comes after his 2018 withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. That agreement, signed in 2015, had placed significant restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Since the U.S. withdrawal, Iran has expanded its nuclear activities. The immediate economic fallout has been significant, with fears of a disruption to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Past conflicts in the region have led to sharp increases in oil prices, and economists predict prices could surge, potentially impacting global inflation and economic growth. International reactions have been mixed, with Russia and China condemning the U.S.-Israeli strikes, while other world leaders have called for de-escalation and a return to diplomatic negotiations. European nations, which have sought to preserve the framework of the JCPOA, have expressed alarm over the potential for a wider regional conflict. Internally, Iran has faced significant unrest in recent years, including major protests in 2022 and 2025-2026 over economic and social issues. The government has responded with intensified security crackdowns, mass arrests, and executions, particularly in regions with ethnic minorities. The current crisis is likely to exacerbate these internal tensions.