Recession odds spike

Moody’s machine‑learning recession indicator currently assigns roughly a 49% probability of a U.S. recession starting within the next 12 months, a level Moody’s says is the closest to 50% it has reached in years. (euronews.com) Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a downturn would be “difficult to avoid” if oil prices remain elevated “for weeks and not months,” and he cited recent softening in labor‑market data as a key factor pushing the model higher. (morningstar.com) JPMorgan’s equity strategists, led by Fabio Bassi, reduced their 2026 year‑end S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500, explicitly pointing to a supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East conflict as the rationale. (bloomberg.com) Market breadth has followed: the S&P 500 is down roughly 6.9% year‑to‑date and has traded in the low‑6,000s recently, including sessions around 6,506.46 that prompted fresh downside warnings from strategists. (slickcharts.com) Oil moved sharply higher at mid‑March turns: Brent reached about $112.57 per barrel on March 27 and posted roughly a 45% month‑over‑month rise, while WTI traded in the low‑$90s as tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf remained constrained. (tradingeconomics.com) Bitcoin has retraced from a mid‑March intraday peak above $75,900 to trade in the mid‑$60,000s, with CoinMarketCap showing a March 28 close near $66,320 and broader data putting BTC’s 2026 year‑to‑date performance down roughly 24%. (coinmarketcap.com)