Fiserv Index: Small Business Sales Stabilized in February
The Fiserv Small Business Index for February remained stable at 143, with year-over-year sales up 1.2%. The data suggests that higher average transaction sizes successfully offset declines in foot traffic, which were largely attributed to poor weather.
The stable national trend was underpinned by a 2.0% year-over-year increase in average ticket sizes, which compensated for a 0.8% dip in foot traffic. This suggests consumers made fewer trips but spent more each time, a pattern influenced by severe winter weather in some regions. Several sectors demonstrated resilience in the face of these challenges. Accommodations saw a 4.3% year-over-year sales increase, while Professional Services grew by 4.2% and Health and Personal Care Retailers were up 3.0%. In contrast, the restaurant sector showed mixed results; full-service restaurants saw a 1.4% sales increase, but limited-service establishments declined by 1.8%. Winter storms had a tangible impact, particularly in the Northeast. Rhode Island experienced a significant 9.9% year-over-year drop in small business sales, directly attributed to a blizzard that limited travel and commerce. In San Francisco, the broader economic outlook for 2026 remains strong, largely fueled by the booming AI sector. This has led to a rebound in the city's housing and rental markets and a general increase in consumer activity, which contrasts with some of the weather-induced slowdowns seen elsewhere. The city's small businesses are also seeing new opportunities and support. In February, the Office of Economic & Workforce Development rolled out new grant programs, including the Storefront Opportunity Grant, to help activate vacant commercial spaces. This local optimism is reflected in the Bay Area's unique economic landscape. While the tech industry has seen some job losses, the surge in AI has created new demand for office space and a flurry of new startup activity. One recent report noted a nearly 6% rise in the Fiserv Small Business Index for the San Francisco, Oakland, and Berkeley areas in late 2025. Looking ahead, San Francisco is also preparing for a boost from major events like the Super Bowl in February 2026, which is expected to inject nearly $500 million into the local economy and create thousands of jobs in the leisure and hospitality sectors. For San Francisco businesses, a key administrative change is also in effect this year. The deadline for business registration renewal has been moved to the last day of February, consolidating it with the Annual Business Tax Form.
