NOAA: 82% chance of El Niño May–July

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño is likely to emerge in the May-to-July 2026 period, raising the odds to 82% in its latest monthly forecast. The agency said there is a 96% chance El Niño conditions will continue through December 2026 to February 2027, a window that feeds into seasonal outlooks used by forecasters and emergency planners. The update did not declare El Niño in place yet. Instead, NOAA kept its alert level at “El Niño Watch,” saying the tropical Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions for now. ### If El Niño has not formed yet, what changed in NOAA’s forecast? The May 14 outlook showed NOAA growing more confident that warming in the equatorial Pacific will cross into El Niño territory in coming months. In April, the same agency had said El Niño was likely to emerge in May-July with a 61% chance; the new forecast raised that to 82%. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said ENSO-neutral conditions continued over the past month, with near-average sea-surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific. At the same time, several indicators moved warmer: the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.4 degrees Celsius, Niño-4 was +0.5 degrees Celsius, and Niño-1+2 was +1.0 degrees Celsius. The agency also said the equatorial subsurface temperature index increased for a sixth straight month. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What does NOAA mean by “El Niño Watch”? NOAA’s alert status remained “El Niño Watch,” which means conditions are favorable for El Niño development but the event has not yet been officially established. The agency’s criteria for El Niño include sustained warming in the Niño-3.4 region of at least 0.5 degrees Celsius and matching atmospheric changes over the tropical Pacific. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The CPC’s probability table issued in May shows El Niño as the most likely outcome across each overlapping three-month season into early 2027. For May-July 2026, NOAA assigned El Niño an 82% chance, compared with 17% for neutral conditions and 1% for La Niña. By December-February 2026-27, the El Niño probability rose to 96%. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### Why does the December-to-February number matter so much? December through February is one of the core periods forecasters use when building winter seasonal outlooks. NOAA said the high probability of El Niño persistence into Northern Hemisphere winter increases confidence that the pattern will be part of the background signal in those forecasts, even though local outcomes still depend on other climate factors. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) That is an inference from NOAA’s forecast structure and the timing of its seasonal products. NOAA updates oceanic and atmospheric conditions weekly and issues the fuller ENSO diagnostic discussion monthly. The agency’s May bulletin said those updates are posted through the Climate Prediction Center’s El Niño/La Niña monitoring pages. ### Is NOAA also linking this to global heat in 2026? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s ENSO update itself focused on Pacific conditions, not a year-end global temperature ranking. Separate climate reporting cited by other outlets has said 2026 is likely to finish among the five hottest years on record, but that specific claim did not appear in the CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion reviewed here. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA Climate.gov says El Niño often coincides with warmer global average temperatures because the tropical Pacific releases more heat into the atmosphere during the warm phase. The agency also notes that the 10 warmest years in NOAA’s 175-year record have all occurred in the last decade through 2024. ### What comes next in NOAA’s process? June’s next ENSO diagnostic discussion is expected on NOAA’s regular second-Thursday monthly cycle, following weekly monitoring updates in the meantime. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Until then, the agency’s official status remains ENSO-neutral with an El Niño Watch, and the key question is whether ocean and atmospheric indicators align strongly enough for NOAA to declare El Niño conditions in a future update. (climate.gov) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)