China’s trade slows in March

China’s export boom lost momentum in March, with overseas shipments rising just 2.5% from a year earlier as imports jumped far faster. (cnbc.com) China’s General Administration of Customs released the data on April 14, showing imports up 27.8% in March, the strongest growth since November 2021, while the monthly trade surplus narrowed to about $51.1 billion. (cnbc.com) (tradingeconomics.com) The export figure missed the 8.6% growth expected by analysts polled by Reuters, and it slowed sharply from the combined 21.8% increase China reported for January and February. Shipments to the United States fell 26.5% from a year earlier in March. (cnbc.com) (finance.yahoo.com) The March numbers landed as China’s economy was already leaning heavily on trade to offset weak domestic demand. Economists told South China Morning Post that recent inflation gains were being driven more by commodity costs than by stronger spending at home. (cnbc.com) (scmp.com) That distinction has shown up in markets. South China Morning Post reported that rising Chinese government bond prices and weak equities signaled investor doubt that any reflation, meaning a sustained pickup in prices and demand, would last. (scmp.com) Officials still pointed to a strong first quarter. Government figures showed total goods trade rose 15% year on year to 11.84 trillion yuan in January through March, the fastest quarterly growth rate in five years. (gov.cn) Part of the March slowdown may reflect the calendar as well as the conflict shock. China combines January and February trade data each year because the Lunar New Year shifts timing, and Bloomberg said a high base from March 2025 also made this year’s export gain look weaker. (cnbc.com) (bloomberg.com) The harder question is April and May. If energy and shipping costs stay elevated and demand in the United States stays soft, March may mark the point where China’s trade-led support starts carrying less of the economy. (cnbc.com) (scmp.com)