Fed rate-cut delay

Economists now expect the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to delay its first interest-rate cut until late 2026, a Reuters poll published April 22, 2026 found. (finance.yahoo.com) The Reuters survey, taken April 17–21, polled 103 economists and found a slim majority—56 of 103—expect the fed funds rate to stay at 3.50%–3.75% through September. (finance.yahoo.com) The poll also showed nearly one‑third of respondents now foresee no rate cuts at all in 2026, a share Reuters said is almost double that in the previous survey. (finance.yahoo.com) Reuters attributed the shift to higher oil prices and “war-driven energy shocks” from the Middle East conflict, which it said have pushed up fuel costs and dented consumer confidence. (finance.yahoo.com) The Fed has held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% since the March 17–18, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (federalreserve.gov) Despite the pushback on timing, 71 of the 103 economists in the poll still expected at least one cut later in 2026, Reuters reported. (finance.yahoo.com) The poll was largely conducted ahead of nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing, and Reuters said economists contacted afterward reported his testimony did not alter their forecasts; U.S. President Donald Trump had said he would be disappointed if Warsh did not lower rates. (finance.yahoo.com) Markets and policymakers will watch the Fed’s next scheduled policy meeting on April 28–29, 2026 and incoming inflation and oil-price data for signs on whether cuts will be pushed into late 2026. (federalreserve.gov)